Super Bowl LVIII is just around the corner, and with it comes a wide array of game props to bet on. As the big game approaches, NFL betting experts have weighed in on their favorite prop bets. In this article, we will analyze their picks and provide our own unique insights into the best props to bet on for Super Bowl LVIII.
Expert Picks and Analysis
Schatz: Taking the Over on Total Points
One prop bet that stands out is the total points scored in the game. Aaron Schatz suggests taking the OVER for the entire game. While both teams boast strong defenses, Schatz points out that the 49ers had an impressive offense this season, ranking ninth in the past 43 years according to his DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) ratings. The Chiefs’ offense was also underrated, ranking eighth despite their issues. Schatz particularly likes the over for the first half, as both defenses tend to play better in the second half. With expectations of early scoring from both teams, Schatz predicts that the first half will exceed 23.5 total points.
Walder: Betting on Under Total Sacks
Tyler Fulghum suggests betting on the UNDER for total sacks in the game. Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy have shown exceptional sack avoidance skills, with Mahomes boasting the second-lowest sack rate in the league. Walder’s model predicts a low number of sacks, pricing the prop at -162. Considering the quarterbacks’ abilities to avoid sacks and the offensive lines’ quality, Walder believes that this is a sensible bet.
Fulghum: Chiefs to Jump to an Early Lead
Fulghum predicts that the Chiefs will take an early lead due to the experience advantage at quarterback, with Mahomes and Andy Reid’s knack for building successful game plans after extra days of rest. However, he acknowledges that the 49ers have proven their resilience. To make things interesting, Fulghum suggests a longshot prop bet: 1st Quarter/Halftime Result – Chiefs/Draw. This bet entails the Chiefs holding a first-quarter lead, only for the 49ers to claw back and tie the game by halftime. Fulghum envisions a scenario where the Chiefs lead 7-3 after the first quarter, and the game is tied 13-13 at halftime.
Pulsifer: Kansas City to Win First Quarter by Shutout
Kevin Pulsifer shares a similar game script with Fulghum but adds his own twist. He points out that Super Bowls historically start slowly, with low-scoring first quarters. Pulsifer notes that in the Kansas City/San Francisco playoff games leading up to the Super Bowl, there were only two to three total possessions in the opening quarter. Considering the Chiefs’ strong defense, Pulsifer predicts a shutout in the first quarter, favoring a scoreline of 3-0, 7-0, or 10-0.
Marks: Kansas City to Score on First Drive
Anita Marks suggests betting on the Kansas City Chiefs to score on their first drive. Marks highlights the Chiefs’ excellent track record in the playoffs, having scored on their first drive in all three postseason games. She credits Andy Reid’s ability to script effective opening series and Mahomes’ stellar performance in indoor games. With the Chiefs’ offensive prowess and the potential for short-field opportunities created by their defense, Marks believes they will start the game strong.
Unique Insights and Betting Nuggets
In addition to the expert picks, Mackenzie Kraemer provides some intriguing betting nuggets. One longshot prop to consider is the possibility of no sacks in the game, which is priced at 40-1. Kraemer’s model factors in several variables, including quarterbacks’ sack avoidance, pass rush quality, offensive line quality, and defensive blitz frequency. Another prop to keep an eye on is the shortest touchdown, which has consistently been 1 yard in the past Super Bowls. Additionally, the 49ers’ scoring trend suggests they are more likely to score more points in the first half than in the second half and overtime. These insights offer valuable information for bettors looking to make informed decisions.
As Super Bowl LVIII approaches, the game props provide exciting betting opportunities for football fans. By analyzing the expert picks and unique insights, bettors can make well-informed decisions and potentially capitalize on the various prop bets available. Whether it’s predicting the total points scored, the number of sacks, or the timing of scoring drives, understanding the nuances of the game can lead to successful wagers. So, gear up for the big game and consider these expert picks and insights when placing your bets.
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